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Crowd Predictions in Hewlett-Packard for sales forecasts across business units

Crowd Prediction1 minute read

The opportunity

Hewlett-Packard deployed crowd predictions through an Information Aggregation Mechanism (IAM) inside the organization for the purpose of making sales forecasts.

The outcome

  • Forecasts based on crowd predictions outperformed official Hewlett-Packard forecasts.
  • In 16 experiments, the crowd predictions were always at least as close to the actual sales as the official predictions, and they were significantly closer in all but one case.
  • In 6 out of 8 events (75%) for which official forecasts were available, crowd predictions are closer to the actual outcome than official forecasts.
  • T-tests also show that the absolute % of errors of the official forecasts are higher than that of the crowd predictions.
  • The crowd made accurate qualitative predictions about the direction that the actual outcome will go (above or below) relative to the official forecasts.
  • The actual outcomes are consistent with the prediction of 8 out of 8 events (100%) that had official forecasts.
  • Crowd predictions were successfully implemented in several Hewlett-Packard business divisions.

Source

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